2022 Lists
Now that we are mid-season 2022, I'll have another look at the lists and make some updates. However, I won't be updating the games played until the end of the season. Also, I haven't updated the Select 22s from pre-season, as I like to look back and see, which of the "up-and-comers" made it, and those that didn't.
Early list of talent for the 2022 drafts
Now that the most of the state-based junior competitions and the majority of the National U18 championships have been played, we have a more rounded idea of the depth of talent. Last year, there were 65 boys taken in the National Draft and another 10 new faces (not counting 16 recycled players) taken in the Rookie Draft, so this (53 names) is far from an exhaustive list. We can now distinguish between the elite (gold), very good (yellow) and other talented juniors. There are also three certainties to mark down for next year. Of course, this list will continue to be updated, as championship games are played right up to September.
The effect of Covid on AFL (special feature)
Over the last two years we have seen the AFL severely damaged by Covid, especially with the two major winter lockdowns in Victoria, in 2020 and 2021.
1. The restricted competition has led to the cutting of revenue, expense budgets, salary caps, and support staff, and this has affected the development staff to junior and developing players.
2. Two years of lockdowns in Victoria have meant that junior and developing players, serving apprenticeships in the VFL have had their development severely restricted, losing almost up to 40 games of footy. AFL listed players in the VFL have lost two years of elite footy development.
3. The combination effect of the spending reductions, the lockdowns and the "bubbles" have meant that clubs have retreated into their core experienced groups and alienated many of their non-core juniors.
4. Clubs are forced into extending the contracts of ready-made, sometimes "over the hill" players, rather than providing the necessary development to their junior players.
5. Clearly Western Australia and South Australia have gained advantages where there have been fewer and shorter lockdowns, and state football competitions have been allowed to play through to grand finals.
In summary, the effect of Covid on AFL junior development has had a serious impact on Victorian junior football development - less so in South and Western Australia, where lockdowns have almost been non-existent.
No one knows how 2022 is going to turn out. Some predict that the Victorian government wouldn't dare sabotage itself by calling lockdowns in an election year. In an unforeseen alternative, some Victorian-based AFL clubs may see an advantage of playing their juniors in the WAFL or SANFL state competitions, which are far less likely to be locked down, rather than risking another year of poor junior development.
Food for thought!
1. The restricted competition has led to the cutting of revenue, expense budgets, salary caps, and support staff, and this has affected the development staff to junior and developing players.
2. Two years of lockdowns in Victoria have meant that junior and developing players, serving apprenticeships in the VFL have had their development severely restricted, losing almost up to 40 games of footy. AFL listed players in the VFL have lost two years of elite footy development.
3. The combination effect of the spending reductions, the lockdowns and the "bubbles" have meant that clubs have retreated into their core experienced groups and alienated many of their non-core juniors.
4. Clubs are forced into extending the contracts of ready-made, sometimes "over the hill" players, rather than providing the necessary development to their junior players.
5. Clearly Western Australia and South Australia have gained advantages where there have been fewer and shorter lockdowns, and state football competitions have been allowed to play through to grand finals.
In summary, the effect of Covid on AFL junior development has had a serious impact on Victorian junior football development - less so in South and Western Australia, where lockdowns have almost been non-existent.
No one knows how 2022 is going to turn out. Some predict that the Victorian government wouldn't dare sabotage itself by calling lockdowns in an election year. In an unforeseen alternative, some Victorian-based AFL clubs may see an advantage of playing their juniors in the WAFL or SANFL state competitions, which are far less likely to be locked down, rather than risking another year of poor junior development.
Food for thought!
Adelaide
List:
Adelaide is rebuilding their list for the future, and this list should click in about 2 to 3 years time.
Its strength is a strong list of future midfielders and goal-kicking smalls, while its major weakness is its lack of genuine key position players.
The major opportunity for Adelaide is to rotate and develop as many of their junior players as they can, building their experience towards the future.
Can Adelaide make use of their long list of junior 190-194cm "mobile talls", or not?
At season end, Adelaide will have re-examine those between the 22-27yo age mark, especially those not getting a game, and decide which of these are in their future.
Select 22:
As Adelaide already have 70% of their team composed of 18-24yo players, their objective should be to put more games into this group, while maintaining experience in defence.
Dawson adds talent to the Adelaide defence but at 192cm and 86kg, he'd be the 3rd tall defender in most other teams. McAsey and Butts appear to be the two key tall backs of their future. The young Thilthorpe provides the genuine height in attack, which should allow Walker and Fogerty to play mobile key forward roles.
Mid-season Update:
This season, Adelaide have performed as expected for a team in transition. Their season start was affected by injuries to experienced players, but they're now placed 14th, with 4 teams below them. They picked up the mature midfielder Turner, mid-season, but he hasn't played yet. Again, at season's end, Adelaide, with many juniors already on the list, will be confronted with the challenge of deciding which mature and developing players aren't going to make it.
Adelaide is rebuilding their list for the future, and this list should click in about 2 to 3 years time.
Its strength is a strong list of future midfielders and goal-kicking smalls, while its major weakness is its lack of genuine key position players.
The major opportunity for Adelaide is to rotate and develop as many of their junior players as they can, building their experience towards the future.
Can Adelaide make use of their long list of junior 190-194cm "mobile talls", or not?
At season end, Adelaide will have re-examine those between the 22-27yo age mark, especially those not getting a game, and decide which of these are in their future.
Select 22:
As Adelaide already have 70% of their team composed of 18-24yo players, their objective should be to put more games into this group, while maintaining experience in defence.
Dawson adds talent to the Adelaide defence but at 192cm and 86kg, he'd be the 3rd tall defender in most other teams. McAsey and Butts appear to be the two key tall backs of their future. The young Thilthorpe provides the genuine height in attack, which should allow Walker and Fogerty to play mobile key forward roles.
Mid-season Update:
This season, Adelaide have performed as expected for a team in transition. Their season start was affected by injuries to experienced players, but they're now placed 14th, with 4 teams below them. They picked up the mature midfielder Turner, mid-season, but he hasn't played yet. Again, at season's end, Adelaide, with many juniors already on the list, will be confronted with the challenge of deciding which mature and developing players aren't going to make it.
Brisbane
List:
The Brisbane list is an example of one in a premiership window, yet still trying to build for its future. Last year (see 2021 LISTS: Brisbane), there were two key points the Brisbane list management team needed to follow: 1. No more junior mediums and, 2. Invest in smalls and key position players. So, they went out and drafted more mediums. The justification is that they need more younger legs in the middle to maximise their premiership window.
This list has more mediums than it can seriously develop, and has too many under-weight ruckmen, with no ground skills, filling key positions.
Does any team need 8 x 200+cm players on their list? No, only 3, maybe 4. Why, then, recruit Darcy Fort?
Every opposition knows to go low inside 50 into the Brisbane defence, because once the ball hits the ground, that opposition has the advantage. Brisbane need to develop mobile key position players that have ground-level skills. They need speedy goal-kicking small forwards to complement their key forwards.
Select 22:
As Brisbane are in a premiership window, they need to select those reliable players that are serving them well. However, they need to improve their weaknesses. Selecting younger genuine mobile key position players will help them to compete in the air and at ground level. Unfortunately, they have no junior or developing speedy goal-kicking small forwards on their list to select.
Mid-season Update:
Brisbane have again shown that they are as powerful as last year, but have struggled in Melbourne once again. As said, the list has too many 200+cm players on the list and in the selected 22, and suffers when it plays on the cold, wet and slippery MCG. Interestingly, it chose not to participate in the mid-season draft. At season's end, it may elect to trade 2 or more of its "ultra talls" for future replacements to Neale and Zorko, and some junior talls.
The Brisbane list is an example of one in a premiership window, yet still trying to build for its future. Last year (see 2021 LISTS: Brisbane), there were two key points the Brisbane list management team needed to follow: 1. No more junior mediums and, 2. Invest in smalls and key position players. So, they went out and drafted more mediums. The justification is that they need more younger legs in the middle to maximise their premiership window.
This list has more mediums than it can seriously develop, and has too many under-weight ruckmen, with no ground skills, filling key positions.
Does any team need 8 x 200+cm players on their list? No, only 3, maybe 4. Why, then, recruit Darcy Fort?
Every opposition knows to go low inside 50 into the Brisbane defence, because once the ball hits the ground, that opposition has the advantage. Brisbane need to develop mobile key position players that have ground-level skills. They need speedy goal-kicking small forwards to complement their key forwards.
Select 22:
As Brisbane are in a premiership window, they need to select those reliable players that are serving them well. However, they need to improve their weaknesses. Selecting younger genuine mobile key position players will help them to compete in the air and at ground level. Unfortunately, they have no junior or developing speedy goal-kicking small forwards on their list to select.
Mid-season Update:
Brisbane have again shown that they are as powerful as last year, but have struggled in Melbourne once again. As said, the list has too many 200+cm players on the list and in the selected 22, and suffers when it plays on the cold, wet and slippery MCG. Interestingly, it chose not to participate in the mid-season draft. At season's end, it may elect to trade 2 or more of its "ultra talls" for future replacements to Neale and Zorko, and some junior talls.
Carlton
List:
The immediate thing that you notice about the Carlton list is that there are only 13 core players from last year still on their list.
The Carlton list is one in transformation, in a positive way. Compared to 2021, they have discarded the "twilighters" and "mature" players who gave them little or no value. They've traded extremely well to recruit Hewett, Cerra for their midfield and Young for their defence. This has probably increased their midfield engine from 4 cylinders to 6 cylinders.
The kick is that there are clear gaps in their "mature" and "developing" smaller midfield players and will battle with clubs that have 8 to 12 cylinder engines. They will need to do more midfield recruiting to make themselves truly competitive. I see Carlton improving again and sitting marginally in or out of the finals, depending upon injuries, as they lack sufficient depth.
Hopefully, next trade and draft period, they will look to boost their list with more talented junior midfielders, and junior genuine talls.
Select 22:
Carlton's best will depend on including its new recruits, as well as getting most of a season from players who were mainly out last year (non-core players). But, Stocker, a talented and performing junior from last year, and an almost automatic selection, has had his 2022 already wrecked from a major ankle injury over the summer. The inclusion and performance of those outside their 2021 core group will determine their finish.
Mid-season Update:
Well, I knew Carlton would improve, but not quite by this much. Carlton's first half of the year was excellent, and their list has stood up in depth to some serious losses through injury, especially in tall defenders. Cerra, Hewett and Young have all made significant contributions. However, the second half of the season has exposed them playing 3 tall forwards - McKay, Charlie Curnow (sensational return), and Silvagni. It will be interesting to see how Carlton will adapt its team to wetter and more slippery conditions, and whether they can maintain their first half of year momentum.
The immediate thing that you notice about the Carlton list is that there are only 13 core players from last year still on their list.
The Carlton list is one in transformation, in a positive way. Compared to 2021, they have discarded the "twilighters" and "mature" players who gave them little or no value. They've traded extremely well to recruit Hewett, Cerra for their midfield and Young for their defence. This has probably increased their midfield engine from 4 cylinders to 6 cylinders.
The kick is that there are clear gaps in their "mature" and "developing" smaller midfield players and will battle with clubs that have 8 to 12 cylinder engines. They will need to do more midfield recruiting to make themselves truly competitive. I see Carlton improving again and sitting marginally in or out of the finals, depending upon injuries, as they lack sufficient depth.
Hopefully, next trade and draft period, they will look to boost their list with more talented junior midfielders, and junior genuine talls.
Select 22:
Carlton's best will depend on including its new recruits, as well as getting most of a season from players who were mainly out last year (non-core players). But, Stocker, a talented and performing junior from last year, and an almost automatic selection, has had his 2022 already wrecked from a major ankle injury over the summer. The inclusion and performance of those outside their 2021 core group will determine their finish.
Mid-season Update:
Well, I knew Carlton would improve, but not quite by this much. Carlton's first half of the year was excellent, and their list has stood up in depth to some serious losses through injury, especially in tall defenders. Cerra, Hewett and Young have all made significant contributions. However, the second half of the season has exposed them playing 3 tall forwards - McKay, Charlie Curnow (sensational return), and Silvagni. It will be interesting to see how Carlton will adapt its team to wetter and more slippery conditions, and whether they can maintain their first half of year momentum.
Collingwood
List:
Collingwood is a club in transition, and its list is in transition too. As you can see, above, they're slowly moving out their twilight players, drafting junior midfielders, whilst picking up talented developing players from other clubs. Credit to their list managers who have noted the dearth of junior smaller-mediums on the list and drafted in that area.
The kick is there will be a wait. The 'mature" (25-27yo) section is bare, and there are big holes in the developing (22-24yo) section too. This means the club will rely heavily on its "twilighters" once again.
A new regime gives time for transition to take place and, hopefully, their supporters will be patient.
Select 22:
Nearly all of the team picks itself based on good core performances in 2021. Developing players - Daicos, Brown & Noble - should be given more responsibility in the midfield. Due to their lack of depth in mature or developing key defenders, the "Carringbush" will give preference to Roughead and the continually injured Moore and Howe, and Kreuger will be their back-up. With a new regime in place, they should call the "Cox experiment" over and find a new key forward. McMahon (19yo, 198cm), Poulter (19yo, 194cm) and Ginnivan (19yo, 185cm) look likely prospects, though two years of Covid lockdown would not have done much for their development.
Mid-season Update:
Collingwood have adapted well to transition. McCrae and Leppitsch are having an extended honeymoon, while no-one would have expected the elite talented junior new boy Nick Daicos to have already established himself as a top-6 player on the list in his first year. Ginnivan, as expected last year, has improved further.... And, Lipinski as another trade in ... But, losing Roughead (retired) and Moore (continued injury) should see more of their developing talls being used. At season's end, key position players and a junior ruckman must be their focus.
Collingwood is a club in transition, and its list is in transition too. As you can see, above, they're slowly moving out their twilight players, drafting junior midfielders, whilst picking up talented developing players from other clubs. Credit to their list managers who have noted the dearth of junior smaller-mediums on the list and drafted in that area.
The kick is there will be a wait. The 'mature" (25-27yo) section is bare, and there are big holes in the developing (22-24yo) section too. This means the club will rely heavily on its "twilighters" once again.
A new regime gives time for transition to take place and, hopefully, their supporters will be patient.
Select 22:
Nearly all of the team picks itself based on good core performances in 2021. Developing players - Daicos, Brown & Noble - should be given more responsibility in the midfield. Due to their lack of depth in mature or developing key defenders, the "Carringbush" will give preference to Roughead and the continually injured Moore and Howe, and Kreuger will be their back-up. With a new regime in place, they should call the "Cox experiment" over and find a new key forward. McMahon (19yo, 198cm), Poulter (19yo, 194cm) and Ginnivan (19yo, 185cm) look likely prospects, though two years of Covid lockdown would not have done much for their development.
Mid-season Update:
Collingwood have adapted well to transition. McCrae and Leppitsch are having an extended honeymoon, while no-one would have expected the elite talented junior new boy Nick Daicos to have already established himself as a top-6 player on the list in his first year. Ginnivan, as expected last year, has improved further.... And, Lipinski as another trade in ... But, losing Roughead (retired) and Moore (continued injury) should see more of their developing talls being used. At season's end, key position players and a junior ruckman must be their focus.
Essendon
List:
The Essendon list is building strength from below as more "twilighters" retire - Zaharakis, Ambrose, Hooker - while 14 of their core players from 2021 come from their "developing" and "junior" sections. They have traded well, adding Adelaide's second best tall interceptor, Kelly, and drafted well, especially Hobbs, who Richmond see as the next Trent Cotchin. The Essendon midfield currently runs on 8-9 cylinders, and should be looking to increase their engine size up to 12 cylinders.
The kick is that they delisted 3 junior smalls and appear to have no junior (18-21yo) small goal-kicking forwards on their list. Hopefully, they will be added in the 2022 national draft.
The list looks good and Essendon should play in their second consecutive season of finals.
Outside of the list, coach Rutten and midfield/attack coach Caracella look a very impressive pair to continue the improvement at the Dons.
Select 22:
Essendon will continue to strengthen their defence and midfield as priorities. Kelly, with Ridley & Stewart, will be a trio of tall interceptors. Added to this, Hind might be placed back as a small rebounding defender. Hurley, at 31yo and with recurring injuries, may be saved for special occasions. Young Draper showed enough to continue as first ruck, and Jones showed that he might be their long-term tall forward.
Mid-season Update:
Yes, nearly every team goes through it, the season that is expected to bring glory and ends in a shambles. Geelong went through it in 2006, Richmond in 2016, Melbourne 2020, Carlton and Collingwood in 2021. "..It happens!" Maybe Essendon relied on Zaharakis, Ambrose, and the much-maligned Hooker, more than we knew. Maybe it was a bad season of injuries to key players. Maybe, they need to include more midfield rotation options outside of Merrett and Parish. Maybe it is just part of the development transition that we know is not linear (two steps forward, one step back ...). We do know that Essendon have a very good developing list, they have two excellent coaches in Rutten and Caracella, and an excellent recruiter in Dodoro. My guess is that they will be back next year, may be better than the last score (20 years).
The Essendon list is building strength from below as more "twilighters" retire - Zaharakis, Ambrose, Hooker - while 14 of their core players from 2021 come from their "developing" and "junior" sections. They have traded well, adding Adelaide's second best tall interceptor, Kelly, and drafted well, especially Hobbs, who Richmond see as the next Trent Cotchin. The Essendon midfield currently runs on 8-9 cylinders, and should be looking to increase their engine size up to 12 cylinders.
The kick is that they delisted 3 junior smalls and appear to have no junior (18-21yo) small goal-kicking forwards on their list. Hopefully, they will be added in the 2022 national draft.
The list looks good and Essendon should play in their second consecutive season of finals.
Outside of the list, coach Rutten and midfield/attack coach Caracella look a very impressive pair to continue the improvement at the Dons.
Select 22:
Essendon will continue to strengthen their defence and midfield as priorities. Kelly, with Ridley & Stewart, will be a trio of tall interceptors. Added to this, Hind might be placed back as a small rebounding defender. Hurley, at 31yo and with recurring injuries, may be saved for special occasions. Young Draper showed enough to continue as first ruck, and Jones showed that he might be their long-term tall forward.
Mid-season Update:
Yes, nearly every team goes through it, the season that is expected to bring glory and ends in a shambles. Geelong went through it in 2006, Richmond in 2016, Melbourne 2020, Carlton and Collingwood in 2021. "..It happens!" Maybe Essendon relied on Zaharakis, Ambrose, and the much-maligned Hooker, more than we knew. Maybe it was a bad season of injuries to key players. Maybe, they need to include more midfield rotation options outside of Merrett and Parish. Maybe it is just part of the development transition that we know is not linear (two steps forward, one step back ...). We do know that Essendon have a very good developing list, they have two excellent coaches in Rutten and Caracella, and an excellent recruiter in Dodoro. My guess is that they will be back next year, may be better than the last score (20 years).
Fremantle
List:
Fremantle has usually been a list that is both too tall and too short, without enough of a complete list to fill out their team competitively. But, that's changing. Fremantle is a list in transition, and it's list is one that raises concerns.
Initially, looking at the list, you see a good group of talented juniors and developing players across the height groups, but then you notice Blakely and Crowden have been delisted and re-rookied, Schultz and Treacy are still rookies, so you question that part of their contract management.
However, they have done well in trading for Clark and Brodie, and picked up good key juniors in Johnson, Amiss and Erasmus. Clark and Brodie have the size and performance to become welcome additions to their rebound in defence.
How well the talented junior (18-21y) and developing (22-24y) players can be fully integrated into the team, against the general decline of twilighters (28y+), will determine their general improvement, but they still look to be another three years off, before beginning a genuine window of opportunity.
Select 22:
The Fremantle team can be improved by the inclusion of their trade-ins, a couple of their new draftees, and a couple of developing players they may not have considered. Clark and Brodie add to Ryan and Wilson's defensive rebounding. Cox and Treacy could add to Logue's defensive marking power. Brayshaw, Acres, Serong, Aish and Young need to takeover the midfield leadership, while Fyfe, Mundy, and Walters add to the rotations. Amiss, Schultz, and Frederick can provide younger goal-kicking options. Lobb, at 28y, can still add to the team, if he can remain injury free.
Mid-season Update:
Fremantle is another team that has amazed with their improvement. Pre-season, they looked 2 to 3 years off, but they've made more than significant gains in a single season. But how?
A look at their most valuable players this season, on a per game basis, clearly shows that they've thrown their "youngens" into the fray and are prevailing - Brayshaw, Brodie, Darcy, Serong, Young, Meek, Clark, Chapman, Cox, Logue, Schultz, Frederick and O'Driscoll are developing (22-24yo) and junior (18-21yo) players who've come up trumps. Usually, you would give these "youngens" another two or three years, but in this case, it's worked. And good luck to them too, as I remember them unfortunately stuck in the Olsen Hotel in South Yarra (maybe fortunately) for most of last season.
Fremantle has usually been a list that is both too tall and too short, without enough of a complete list to fill out their team competitively. But, that's changing. Fremantle is a list in transition, and it's list is one that raises concerns.
Initially, looking at the list, you see a good group of talented juniors and developing players across the height groups, but then you notice Blakely and Crowden have been delisted and re-rookied, Schultz and Treacy are still rookies, so you question that part of their contract management.
However, they have done well in trading for Clark and Brodie, and picked up good key juniors in Johnson, Amiss and Erasmus. Clark and Brodie have the size and performance to become welcome additions to their rebound in defence.
How well the talented junior (18-21y) and developing (22-24y) players can be fully integrated into the team, against the general decline of twilighters (28y+), will determine their general improvement, but they still look to be another three years off, before beginning a genuine window of opportunity.
Select 22:
The Fremantle team can be improved by the inclusion of their trade-ins, a couple of their new draftees, and a couple of developing players they may not have considered. Clark and Brodie add to Ryan and Wilson's defensive rebounding. Cox and Treacy could add to Logue's defensive marking power. Brayshaw, Acres, Serong, Aish and Young need to takeover the midfield leadership, while Fyfe, Mundy, and Walters add to the rotations. Amiss, Schultz, and Frederick can provide younger goal-kicking options. Lobb, at 28y, can still add to the team, if he can remain injury free.
Mid-season Update:
Fremantle is another team that has amazed with their improvement. Pre-season, they looked 2 to 3 years off, but they've made more than significant gains in a single season. But how?
A look at their most valuable players this season, on a per game basis, clearly shows that they've thrown their "youngens" into the fray and are prevailing - Brayshaw, Brodie, Darcy, Serong, Young, Meek, Clark, Chapman, Cox, Logue, Schultz, Frederick and O'Driscoll are developing (22-24yo) and junior (18-21yo) players who've come up trumps. Usually, you would give these "youngens" another two or three years, but in this case, it's worked. And good luck to them too, as I remember them unfortunately stuck in the Olsen Hotel in South Yarra (maybe fortunately) for most of last season.
Geelong
List:
I thought up a short anecdote while reviewing the Geelong list that their Executive had applied to the AFL to get a Senior's discount off their salary cap. Whether funny or not, 17 of their 43 listed players are 28 years plus, 39%, which is no change on last year. Stephen Wells has paid for it by being replaced as list manager by Andrew Mackie. They appear to have a new group of juniors (18-21y), but the past indicates that they wont get a go. The Geelong midfield is old. You look for younger replacements - Simpson, Parfitt, Miers, Narkle, Zach Guthrie, O'Connor, but none of them are doing enough to warrant key midfield roles. And, with already three 200+ cm juniors on the list, they chose a fourth, Conway.
If Geelong get enough games at Kardinia Park and enough MCG games against weaker opponents, they may just make the finals, then they'll be burned-off by another young hard-running team. When the fuel tank of the "twilighters" runs out for good, it's going to hit the list very, very hard.
Select 22:
It is discouraging picking a Geelong team, as there are so few juniors who are ready to move into the first 22. Although they've recruited Ceglar, Ratugolea is still a better younger option. I've tried to improve their midfield but there aren't the younger options there. Stengle is a walk in. Apart from Conway, Willis was the only other rated pre-draftee, and he wasn't in the top 30.
Mid-season Update:
Although there is still an overreliance on twilighters making up the Geelong list, out of necessity this season, they have tried to give more responsibility to the younger players on the list, and this has worked for them, to a degree. These younger players - Parfitt, Zach Guthrie, Close, Stengle, Holmes, O'Connor, Miers, Henry, and De Koning - are making an impact. They need to, as the list looks bare for replacements to Dangerfield, Tuohy, Smith, Stewart, Hawkins, Blicavs, Cameron, and Stanley. So far, Geelong have just got over the line against some fast running teams, with the help of some astounding bias from the umpires and their Kardinia Park fortress.
This next draft should see Geelong hunting for genuine tall key position players, but there are only so many to go round, and all club recruiters are now a "wake up" to the talented boys who get hidden in the Geelong Falcons.
I thought up a short anecdote while reviewing the Geelong list that their Executive had applied to the AFL to get a Senior's discount off their salary cap. Whether funny or not, 17 of their 43 listed players are 28 years plus, 39%, which is no change on last year. Stephen Wells has paid for it by being replaced as list manager by Andrew Mackie. They appear to have a new group of juniors (18-21y), but the past indicates that they wont get a go. The Geelong midfield is old. You look for younger replacements - Simpson, Parfitt, Miers, Narkle, Zach Guthrie, O'Connor, but none of them are doing enough to warrant key midfield roles. And, with already three 200+ cm juniors on the list, they chose a fourth, Conway.
If Geelong get enough games at Kardinia Park and enough MCG games against weaker opponents, they may just make the finals, then they'll be burned-off by another young hard-running team. When the fuel tank of the "twilighters" runs out for good, it's going to hit the list very, very hard.
Select 22:
It is discouraging picking a Geelong team, as there are so few juniors who are ready to move into the first 22. Although they've recruited Ceglar, Ratugolea is still a better younger option. I've tried to improve their midfield but there aren't the younger options there. Stengle is a walk in. Apart from Conway, Willis was the only other rated pre-draftee, and he wasn't in the top 30.
Mid-season Update:
Although there is still an overreliance on twilighters making up the Geelong list, out of necessity this season, they have tried to give more responsibility to the younger players on the list, and this has worked for them, to a degree. These younger players - Parfitt, Zach Guthrie, Close, Stengle, Holmes, O'Connor, Miers, Henry, and De Koning - are making an impact. They need to, as the list looks bare for replacements to Dangerfield, Tuohy, Smith, Stewart, Hawkins, Blicavs, Cameron, and Stanley. So far, Geelong have just got over the line against some fast running teams, with the help of some astounding bias from the umpires and their Kardinia Park fortress.
This next draft should see Geelong hunting for genuine tall key position players, but there are only so many to go round, and all club recruiters are now a "wake up" to the talented boys who get hidden in the Geelong Falcons.
Gold Coast
List:
Last year saw the inclusion of a new wave of juniors onto the Gold Coast list, and there was marginal improvement. This has been followed by the retirements of a few of their "twilighters" - Harbrow, Townsend, Hombsch, Murdoch, and Thompson, although Thompson was re-rookied. Much has been said of the unfortunate mishap with Greenwood, but opportunity comes from adversity and that could be young Davies, who impressed in his one appearance last season and could become one of their regular midfield rotations.
Their defence looks solid with talls - Collins, Ballard, young Lukosius and Graham, and the Constable, from Geelong, supported by mediums Powell and Bowes. They have grown their midfield out to 10 cylinders, with the inclusion of more juniors. And Chol, from Richmond, will help take pressure off the junior King and the undersized mobile key forward Corbett.
I see Gold Coast continuing to improve this season and should finish 11th or 12th, with an eye to breaking into the finals in 2 or 3 years time.
Select 22:
For the first time in ages, I have to exclude some players I'd normally automatically pick in their team. Rankine, Lemmens, Burgess, Holman, Day, Flanders must do more to be in their best 22. Much will rely on the recovery of Witts in the ruck, otherwise back-up Casboult will carry the burden. The team picked above has good intercept marking in defense, a 10-cylinder midfield, and a forward half that will have ground-level grunt as well as aerial skills.
Mid-season Update:
As expected, the Suns have improved as the quality and depth of their list has improved too. Opportunity has been given to developing and junior players who weren't part of their 2021 core group and have risen. Also, some of their previous core group, who had been gifted games in the past, are making the most of their opportunities.
As the list already runs deep, the Gold Coast can work on hunting some talented junior or developing players who may not be getting a go on other clubs lists, like "Freo" did last year with Brodie, Clark, etc.
Last year saw the inclusion of a new wave of juniors onto the Gold Coast list, and there was marginal improvement. This has been followed by the retirements of a few of their "twilighters" - Harbrow, Townsend, Hombsch, Murdoch, and Thompson, although Thompson was re-rookied. Much has been said of the unfortunate mishap with Greenwood, but opportunity comes from adversity and that could be young Davies, who impressed in his one appearance last season and could become one of their regular midfield rotations.
Their defence looks solid with talls - Collins, Ballard, young Lukosius and Graham, and the Constable, from Geelong, supported by mediums Powell and Bowes. They have grown their midfield out to 10 cylinders, with the inclusion of more juniors. And Chol, from Richmond, will help take pressure off the junior King and the undersized mobile key forward Corbett.
I see Gold Coast continuing to improve this season and should finish 11th or 12th, with an eye to breaking into the finals in 2 or 3 years time.
Select 22:
For the first time in ages, I have to exclude some players I'd normally automatically pick in their team. Rankine, Lemmens, Burgess, Holman, Day, Flanders must do more to be in their best 22. Much will rely on the recovery of Witts in the ruck, otherwise back-up Casboult will carry the burden. The team picked above has good intercept marking in defense, a 10-cylinder midfield, and a forward half that will have ground-level grunt as well as aerial skills.
Mid-season Update:
As expected, the Suns have improved as the quality and depth of their list has improved too. Opportunity has been given to developing and junior players who weren't part of their 2021 core group and have risen. Also, some of their previous core group, who had been gifted games in the past, are making the most of their opportunities.
As the list already runs deep, the Gold Coast can work on hunting some talented junior or developing players who may not be getting a go on other clubs lists, like "Freo" did last year with Brodie, Clark, etc.
Greater Western Sydney
List:
First thing, it's amazing to see all those priority GWS picks of the late 2Ks reach the "twilighter" stage of their careers.
GWS is a credit to very good list management. After seemingly peaking in reaching the 2019 Grand Final, GWS copped a heap of injuries in 2021, yet were able place more reliance on a young developing list and found some exciting developing (22-24y) and junior (18-21) players. And, the fact that those developing and junior players were across the all height ranges, meant that they were available on the list, ready to be given opportunity. Even in the ruck, they weaned themselves off Mumford and found talent in the developing duo, Flynn & Briggs. Consequently, GWS, looking down and out mid-season, ended up in the finals and should be even more competitive in 2022.
During trading, confronted with what to do with three mature key forwards, GWS traded off Finlayson, and they ended up with a developing key defender in the talented Brander from Westcoast. GWS is a lesson in proactive list management, and this should continue in 2022.
Select 22:
GWS will benefit from the junior and developing talent given opportunity in 2021. Only three of their twilighters - Greene, Ward & Haynes - should be needed in 2022. The developing Taylor, Buckley, Perryman & Cumming will support Haynes & Ward. Developing Taranto & Hopper, with juniors Green, Ash & Hill will boost their midfield. Flynn & Briggs will share the rucking over the perpetually injured Preuss, and they have room to develop even more juniors along the way. Hey, they've even given me room to omit the aging and injured Davis, Coniglio, Kennedy, De Boer & Keefe.
Special anecdote, dedication to Matt De Boer:
In the late 2Ks, I watched the Western Australian U18 Rep team play. The same year as Ty Vickery's rep year, 2008, if I remember correctly. I remember all the accolades given to one of their midfielders who ran around all day picking up easy handball receives and booting the ball 50 metres in the air each time for easy interceptions. (I'll let you guess who this player is.) Alongside the easy ball-getter was a very hard-working midfielder who put his body on the line every time. Unfortunately, at the start of the last quarter in the highlight match at Docklands, he miskicked his own centre clearance which was seen by all the recruiters. I still rated him no. 9 in that draft, but he wasn't picked up until the rookie draft, most probably because of that one kick. Matt De Boer was that hardworking midfield junior. Matt was picked in the rookie draft by Freo and played 8 seasons with them, before moving to GWS and playing another 5 seasons, and this season, his sixth and probably his last. 14 seasons in all, for 211 games so far. He gave it everything he had.
Well done, Matt De Boer.
Mid-season Update:
Improvement is not linear, and this has seen the Giants season take one step back during this season. As their team includes more developing and junior players, their performances will be inconsistent. However, one can see them definitely opening up a new premiership window in two or three years.
End of season, the Giants should be looking at retiring more non-core twilight players, and picking up a quality developing small from another club, and another couple of speedy junior smalls in the draft.
First thing, it's amazing to see all those priority GWS picks of the late 2Ks reach the "twilighter" stage of their careers.
GWS is a credit to very good list management. After seemingly peaking in reaching the 2019 Grand Final, GWS copped a heap of injuries in 2021, yet were able place more reliance on a young developing list and found some exciting developing (22-24y) and junior (18-21) players. And, the fact that those developing and junior players were across the all height ranges, meant that they were available on the list, ready to be given opportunity. Even in the ruck, they weaned themselves off Mumford and found talent in the developing duo, Flynn & Briggs. Consequently, GWS, looking down and out mid-season, ended up in the finals and should be even more competitive in 2022.
During trading, confronted with what to do with three mature key forwards, GWS traded off Finlayson, and they ended up with a developing key defender in the talented Brander from Westcoast. GWS is a lesson in proactive list management, and this should continue in 2022.
Select 22:
GWS will benefit from the junior and developing talent given opportunity in 2021. Only three of their twilighters - Greene, Ward & Haynes - should be needed in 2022. The developing Taylor, Buckley, Perryman & Cumming will support Haynes & Ward. Developing Taranto & Hopper, with juniors Green, Ash & Hill will boost their midfield. Flynn & Briggs will share the rucking over the perpetually injured Preuss, and they have room to develop even more juniors along the way. Hey, they've even given me room to omit the aging and injured Davis, Coniglio, Kennedy, De Boer & Keefe.
Special anecdote, dedication to Matt De Boer:
In the late 2Ks, I watched the Western Australian U18 Rep team play. The same year as Ty Vickery's rep year, 2008, if I remember correctly. I remember all the accolades given to one of their midfielders who ran around all day picking up easy handball receives and booting the ball 50 metres in the air each time for easy interceptions. (I'll let you guess who this player is.) Alongside the easy ball-getter was a very hard-working midfielder who put his body on the line every time. Unfortunately, at the start of the last quarter in the highlight match at Docklands, he miskicked his own centre clearance which was seen by all the recruiters. I still rated him no. 9 in that draft, but he wasn't picked up until the rookie draft, most probably because of that one kick. Matt De Boer was that hardworking midfield junior. Matt was picked in the rookie draft by Freo and played 8 seasons with them, before moving to GWS and playing another 5 seasons, and this season, his sixth and probably his last. 14 seasons in all, for 211 games so far. He gave it everything he had.
Well done, Matt De Boer.
Mid-season Update:
Improvement is not linear, and this has seen the Giants season take one step back during this season. As their team includes more developing and junior players, their performances will be inconsistent. However, one can see them definitely opening up a new premiership window in two or three years.
End of season, the Giants should be looking at retiring more non-core twilight players, and picking up a quality developing small from another club, and another couple of speedy junior smalls in the draft.
Hawthorn
List:
The Hawthorn list, as per last year, is in rebuild mode and it is still quite a few years away from a premiership window.
It has traded in Lynch from Collingwood as another ruck option, however, I question whether this will benefit Lynch. He's looking for a 1st ruck opportunity, Reeves was ranked in the top 10 of all rucks in the competition in 2021, is the same age as Lynch, and McEvoy is already their second ruckman, which means that unless Hawthorn do the wrong thing by their incumbent, Reeves, Lynch will be in third place. (... not the opportunity Lynch expected.) Serong & Long are good mobile tall (190-194cm) additions. Four developing and junior smaller-mediums were jettisoned from last year's list, three new ones were recruited and some others moved up age groups, indicating the inevitable future retirement of their "twilighters" in that height group.
Select 22:
In line with a rebuilding policy, Hawthorn must give opportunities to their developing and junior players. Although, the junior age of their future key position players, especially in defence, may not see an immediate turnover. And, they may give priority to Lynch over McEvoy, while retaining Reeves.
Mid-season Update:
As expected, this season has been a disappointment for both Hawthorn and Max Lynch. But, that was to be expected, given their developing list.
Hawthorn went twice to the mid-season drafting pool and picked up junior talls - Ramsden & Blanck - adding to their depth in this height range.
At season's end, Hawthorn should be on the look out for developing taller-mediums (186-189cm) and mobile talls (190-194cm) lacking opportunity elsewhere, and should pick up a couple of speedy junior smalls in the draft. Hawthorn could / should knock on North's door immediately to see what mutually beneficial deals can be done.
The Hawthorn list, as per last year, is in rebuild mode and it is still quite a few years away from a premiership window.
It has traded in Lynch from Collingwood as another ruck option, however, I question whether this will benefit Lynch. He's looking for a 1st ruck opportunity, Reeves was ranked in the top 10 of all rucks in the competition in 2021, is the same age as Lynch, and McEvoy is already their second ruckman, which means that unless Hawthorn do the wrong thing by their incumbent, Reeves, Lynch will be in third place. (... not the opportunity Lynch expected.) Serong & Long are good mobile tall (190-194cm) additions. Four developing and junior smaller-mediums were jettisoned from last year's list, three new ones were recruited and some others moved up age groups, indicating the inevitable future retirement of their "twilighters" in that height group.
Select 22:
In line with a rebuilding policy, Hawthorn must give opportunities to their developing and junior players. Although, the junior age of their future key position players, especially in defence, may not see an immediate turnover. And, they may give priority to Lynch over McEvoy, while retaining Reeves.
Mid-season Update:
As expected, this season has been a disappointment for both Hawthorn and Max Lynch. But, that was to be expected, given their developing list.
Hawthorn went twice to the mid-season drafting pool and picked up junior talls - Ramsden & Blanck - adding to their depth in this height range.
At season's end, Hawthorn should be on the look out for developing taller-mediums (186-189cm) and mobile talls (190-194cm) lacking opportunity elsewhere, and should pick up a couple of speedy junior smalls in the draft. Hawthorn could / should knock on North's door immediately to see what mutually beneficial deals can be done.
Melbourne
List:
So, this is what the current premiership-holder's list looks like. The bulk of its premiership team comes out of the mature and developing groups, especially the midfield - Viney, Salem, Harmes, Petracca, Langdon, Neal-Bullen, Brayshaw, Hunt, Fritsch, Spargo, and the brick wall-breaker, Oliver. This was led by "twilighters" - Gawn, ruck; McDonald, 1st key forward; Ben Brown, second key forward; May, key back. And, it was supported by a fleet of young, hard and fast running juniors - Pickett, Bowey, Sparrow, Jordan, Rivers & Jackson. When Tomlinson went down, Hore came in. When Hore went down, Petty came in. Petty did his very best, as a 2021 junior, to fill the hole, but will need to lift significantly in key defensive KPIs, intercepting, marking, & rebounding, to immediately overtake a fit Tomlinson, but Petty is just beginning his development phase, whereas Tomlinson has just entered the "twilighter" stage. There are other names in the "twilight" area (28+years) that aren't core players.
Melbourne have added more juniors for their future, but they are in a premiership window and desperately need to make the most of it. And, their list looks like that window will run for another 3 to 4 years. But, after that, continued prosperity will depend on constantly reviewing the list, chopping underperforming "twilighters" and continuing to recruit and develop talented juniors. Their focus in the 2022 national draft should be a genuine junior tall (195-199cm) and a genuine ruck (200+cm). They could also trade in a developing (22-24yo) 1st ruck from another club. Jackson is excellent, but not as a 1st ruck.
Select 22:
Well, the premiership team picks itself, nearly. A fit Tomlinson shall replace a developing Petty. Dunstan, a ready-made midfielder, shall add to the midfield rotations. A long season ahead will provide opportunities for other juniors.
Mid-season Update:
As expected by most, Melbourne strongly continue their window of opportunity. However their significant gap is in the 200+cm area, where they have nothing developing behind Gawn. Last year, they had Preuss filling in - this year, no one, except the undersized Weideman and Jackson.
End of year should require Melbourne to trade for a developing tall ruck, and draft another junior ruck.
So, this is what the current premiership-holder's list looks like. The bulk of its premiership team comes out of the mature and developing groups, especially the midfield - Viney, Salem, Harmes, Petracca, Langdon, Neal-Bullen, Brayshaw, Hunt, Fritsch, Spargo, and the brick wall-breaker, Oliver. This was led by "twilighters" - Gawn, ruck; McDonald, 1st key forward; Ben Brown, second key forward; May, key back. And, it was supported by a fleet of young, hard and fast running juniors - Pickett, Bowey, Sparrow, Jordan, Rivers & Jackson. When Tomlinson went down, Hore came in. When Hore went down, Petty came in. Petty did his very best, as a 2021 junior, to fill the hole, but will need to lift significantly in key defensive KPIs, intercepting, marking, & rebounding, to immediately overtake a fit Tomlinson, but Petty is just beginning his development phase, whereas Tomlinson has just entered the "twilighter" stage. There are other names in the "twilight" area (28+years) that aren't core players.
Melbourne have added more juniors for their future, but they are in a premiership window and desperately need to make the most of it. And, their list looks like that window will run for another 3 to 4 years. But, after that, continued prosperity will depend on constantly reviewing the list, chopping underperforming "twilighters" and continuing to recruit and develop talented juniors. Their focus in the 2022 national draft should be a genuine junior tall (195-199cm) and a genuine ruck (200+cm). They could also trade in a developing (22-24yo) 1st ruck from another club. Jackson is excellent, but not as a 1st ruck.
Select 22:
Well, the premiership team picks itself, nearly. A fit Tomlinson shall replace a developing Petty. Dunstan, a ready-made midfielder, shall add to the midfield rotations. A long season ahead will provide opportunities for other juniors.
Mid-season Update:
As expected by most, Melbourne strongly continue their window of opportunity. However their significant gap is in the 200+cm area, where they have nothing developing behind Gawn. Last year, they had Preuss filling in - this year, no one, except the undersized Weideman and Jackson.
End of year should require Melbourne to trade for a developing tall ruck, and draft another junior ruck.
North Melbourne
List:
Like Hawthorn, North appears to be attempting to monopolise the full supply of a height type. Whereas the Hawks' focus is on the 181-185cm height group, North's is on the 186-189cm group, usually associated with wingmen and flankers.
Their focus on the tall-medium (186-189cm) group leaves them short of inside midfielders and key position players. In the last November draft season, they delisted and retired some of this group, then drafted some more. They did trade well for Coleman-Jones, who wanted more opportunity. My guess is that he will be overburdened with on-field responsibility in his first season at North. Greenwood will walk into a key midfield role too. Injuries will expose their lack of depth around the ground. The loss of Cunnington adds more pressure.
North is still the worst list in the league by far, and one would not reasonably expect them to improve this season.
Select 22:
This has been the hardest team to pick. I couldn't find 22 AFL standard players, and ended up filling the last 6 gaps with best available for the respective positions.
Being a Tiger supporter, I know what it's like looking down a dark unlit tunnel. Eventually there was light a decade later, but you must begin getting the list management fundamentals correct first.
Mid-season Update:
I usually refrain from discussing the off-field, but Ex-coach Noble is paying for the "gutlessness" of the North board.
In 2020, the North board gave the "Covid-inspired" order to cut the guts out of the list to reduce recurrent expenditure to reduce club debt to zero. It was a reasonable off-field decision but, as said, it more than decimated the North list. Noble is paying for it, not the board.
If North continue to recruit well, they can come good in 5 to 6 years time, and must continue to pick up juniors across the height ranges, except for tall-mediums (186-189cm) of which they hold a tradeable surplus.
Like Hawthorn, North appears to be attempting to monopolise the full supply of a height type. Whereas the Hawks' focus is on the 181-185cm height group, North's is on the 186-189cm group, usually associated with wingmen and flankers.
Their focus on the tall-medium (186-189cm) group leaves them short of inside midfielders and key position players. In the last November draft season, they delisted and retired some of this group, then drafted some more. They did trade well for Coleman-Jones, who wanted more opportunity. My guess is that he will be overburdened with on-field responsibility in his first season at North. Greenwood will walk into a key midfield role too. Injuries will expose their lack of depth around the ground. The loss of Cunnington adds more pressure.
North is still the worst list in the league by far, and one would not reasonably expect them to improve this season.
Select 22:
This has been the hardest team to pick. I couldn't find 22 AFL standard players, and ended up filling the last 6 gaps with best available for the respective positions.
Being a Tiger supporter, I know what it's like looking down a dark unlit tunnel. Eventually there was light a decade later, but you must begin getting the list management fundamentals correct first.
Mid-season Update:
I usually refrain from discussing the off-field, but Ex-coach Noble is paying for the "gutlessness" of the North board.
In 2020, the North board gave the "Covid-inspired" order to cut the guts out of the list to reduce recurrent expenditure to reduce club debt to zero. It was a reasonable off-field decision but, as said, it more than decimated the North list. Noble is paying for it, not the board.
If North continue to recruit well, they can come good in 5 to 6 years time, and must continue to pick up juniors across the height ranges, except for tall-mediums (186-189cm) of which they hold a tradeable surplus.
Port Adelaide
List:
The Port Adelaide list is a prime example of entering a premiership window with holes in your list, and it's cost them repeatedly.
Last year, I noted they were thin in key position players - lacking a genuine tall in the back half, and lacking an alternative key forward to Dixon.
This season, they again have a very solid list, and wisely traded in Finlayson from GWS, who will play as a tall high half forward (CHF, in the old lingo). They have also picked up the unwanted Skinner from Brisbane. The loss of Ladhams to Sydney means that Marshall will be dragged from the forward half into the ruck, if Lycett goes down. They also lack for a genuine 1st rover. They are currently running on an 6-cylinder midfield engine that will struggle against the 10-12 cylinder engines of the top teams.
For the 2022 draft, Port need to coax over a genuine first rover or two.
Select 22:
Port needs toning up. Finlayson adds an extra tall option in the forward half, easing pressure on Dixon and allowing Marshall to play as a changing ruck/forward. Port still lack for a genuine tall in their back half, and this is where I see an opportunity given to Skinner a 24yo, 197cm, 99kg, failing forward, who might redeem himself as a key back.
Also, being old school, I tried to find a first rover on Port's list - Fantasia is a small forward who gets less than 10 kicks a game - so just compromised on the emerging smaller-medium (181-185cm) Butters, but he'll have to improve his work rate to manage the position.
Mid-season Update:
One season too long! That's how it appears for Port's twilighters, each of whom have suffered injury - Motlop, Gray, McKenzie, Jonas, Dixon, Lycett, and, to a lesser extent Boak. Like Richmond, one season too long. Fortunately Port has some depth and will be competitive.
At end of year, Port should hunt out a younger or developing "Lachie Neale-type", and continue drafting quality juniors across the height ranges.
The Port Adelaide list is a prime example of entering a premiership window with holes in your list, and it's cost them repeatedly.
Last year, I noted they were thin in key position players - lacking a genuine tall in the back half, and lacking an alternative key forward to Dixon.
This season, they again have a very solid list, and wisely traded in Finlayson from GWS, who will play as a tall high half forward (CHF, in the old lingo). They have also picked up the unwanted Skinner from Brisbane. The loss of Ladhams to Sydney means that Marshall will be dragged from the forward half into the ruck, if Lycett goes down. They also lack for a genuine 1st rover. They are currently running on an 6-cylinder midfield engine that will struggle against the 10-12 cylinder engines of the top teams.
For the 2022 draft, Port need to coax over a genuine first rover or two.
Select 22:
Port needs toning up. Finlayson adds an extra tall option in the forward half, easing pressure on Dixon and allowing Marshall to play as a changing ruck/forward. Port still lack for a genuine tall in their back half, and this is where I see an opportunity given to Skinner a 24yo, 197cm, 99kg, failing forward, who might redeem himself as a key back.
Also, being old school, I tried to find a first rover on Port's list - Fantasia is a small forward who gets less than 10 kicks a game - so just compromised on the emerging smaller-medium (181-185cm) Butters, but he'll have to improve his work rate to manage the position.
Mid-season Update:
One season too long! That's how it appears for Port's twilighters, each of whom have suffered injury - Motlop, Gray, McKenzie, Jonas, Dixon, Lycett, and, to a lesser extent Boak. Like Richmond, one season too long. Fortunately Port has some depth and will be competitive.
At end of year, Port should hunt out a younger or developing "Lachie Neale-type", and continue drafting quality juniors across the height ranges.
Richmond
List:
The Richmond list is in the process of self-destruction. Last season, the Tiger football hierarchy should have accepted that their window had closed but didn't. This year, they still delude themselves that they have one more shot at it. The truth is that they are severely handicapped by salary cap cuts and contracts that don't run out until the end of 2022. In fact, 21 of their contracts run out at the end of 2022, including Cotchin, Riewoldt, Edwards, Lambert, Caddy, Broad, Daniel Rioli, Collier-Dawkins, Ross, Short, Baker, and others. One guesses that contractually, they haven't been able to move and are stuck until the end of the season. The big question is: which way will the flood flow at the end of 2022?
Over the last few years, there has been a vanishing middle row of developing players that have left. Ellis, Butler, Markov, Coleman-Jones, Chol, and a few others. There's a big gap between who's about to retire and who's there to replace them, especially in key positions, both forward and in defence, with the retirements of Rance and Astbury, and Grimes and Broad in "twilighter" status. The best they could do was put the 32yo Tarrant on a 2 year contract, hoping that Balta recovers quickly and that they can fast-track Gibcus into an AFL-ready defender within 2 years (chances!!!).
Their draft was good, but they did miss the availability of Jack Williams (18yo, 195cm, 94kg, tall key forward in Tom Lynch-style), a pre-draft Top-30 ranking, who went to the Eagles at #57. Riewoldt is 33yo, and Tom Lynch is 29, with no other key forwards on their list.
The Tigers think they've one more shot at another premiership. To quote from the Australian film classic, The Castle: "Tell them they're dreaming!"
Select 22:
Firstly, Cotchin averaged 70% time on ground last season, it'll be less this year, so he needs to be relegated to a second tier midfield rotation. Graham needs to step up and prove he is a tier 1 player. Short is their no.1 ball-getter, but is not an interceptor, and should be a tier 1 midfielder. Collier-Dawkins and Ross have been mucked around with, like so many others, and deserve decent midfield rotation time over a full season. Tarrant is there because there is an enormous gap. Stack should be there too, on talent and per game performance. Soldo should return to take the load off the under-sized Nankervis. And, more juniors need to be rotated through the 22 to add games and experience to the list.
Mid-season Update:
Just as Richmond's 2021's final's hopes ended with on June 13th (Rd 13, v Eagles), this year may have ended on July 9 (Rd 17, v Suns), with the Dockers and Lions ahead, and the Tigers needing to win every game. Although, credit to the management for getting a bunch of worn out men, and boys, this far.
Their challenge will be trying to retain talented boys who haven't had a fair run in the seniors for two years. The vacant "developing" (22-24yo) section looks sad. And, Riewoldt and Lynch still don't have genuine understudies, even after the mid-season draft.
At end of season, the Tigers need new, quality midfield options that can contest stoppages and win clearances, something they're lacking in. Clear out those not part of the future, and gather as many early draft picks for talented inside and outside midfielders, and a quality junior key forward and, possibly, trade for a couple of developing strong-bodied midfielders. My goodness, they need so much! (I've heard North will sell anything at any price!)
The Richmond list is in the process of self-destruction. Last season, the Tiger football hierarchy should have accepted that their window had closed but didn't. This year, they still delude themselves that they have one more shot at it. The truth is that they are severely handicapped by salary cap cuts and contracts that don't run out until the end of 2022. In fact, 21 of their contracts run out at the end of 2022, including Cotchin, Riewoldt, Edwards, Lambert, Caddy, Broad, Daniel Rioli, Collier-Dawkins, Ross, Short, Baker, and others. One guesses that contractually, they haven't been able to move and are stuck until the end of the season. The big question is: which way will the flood flow at the end of 2022?
Over the last few years, there has been a vanishing middle row of developing players that have left. Ellis, Butler, Markov, Coleman-Jones, Chol, and a few others. There's a big gap between who's about to retire and who's there to replace them, especially in key positions, both forward and in defence, with the retirements of Rance and Astbury, and Grimes and Broad in "twilighter" status. The best they could do was put the 32yo Tarrant on a 2 year contract, hoping that Balta recovers quickly and that they can fast-track Gibcus into an AFL-ready defender within 2 years (chances!!!).
Their draft was good, but they did miss the availability of Jack Williams (18yo, 195cm, 94kg, tall key forward in Tom Lynch-style), a pre-draft Top-30 ranking, who went to the Eagles at #57. Riewoldt is 33yo, and Tom Lynch is 29, with no other key forwards on their list.
The Tigers think they've one more shot at another premiership. To quote from the Australian film classic, The Castle: "Tell them they're dreaming!"
Select 22:
Firstly, Cotchin averaged 70% time on ground last season, it'll be less this year, so he needs to be relegated to a second tier midfield rotation. Graham needs to step up and prove he is a tier 1 player. Short is their no.1 ball-getter, but is not an interceptor, and should be a tier 1 midfielder. Collier-Dawkins and Ross have been mucked around with, like so many others, and deserve decent midfield rotation time over a full season. Tarrant is there because there is an enormous gap. Stack should be there too, on talent and per game performance. Soldo should return to take the load off the under-sized Nankervis. And, more juniors need to be rotated through the 22 to add games and experience to the list.
Mid-season Update:
Just as Richmond's 2021's final's hopes ended with on June 13th (Rd 13, v Eagles), this year may have ended on July 9 (Rd 17, v Suns), with the Dockers and Lions ahead, and the Tigers needing to win every game. Although, credit to the management for getting a bunch of worn out men, and boys, this far.
Their challenge will be trying to retain talented boys who haven't had a fair run in the seniors for two years. The vacant "developing" (22-24yo) section looks sad. And, Riewoldt and Lynch still don't have genuine understudies, even after the mid-season draft.
At end of season, the Tigers need new, quality midfield options that can contest stoppages and win clearances, something they're lacking in. Clear out those not part of the future, and gather as many early draft picks for talented inside and outside midfielders, and a quality junior key forward and, possibly, trade for a couple of developing strong-bodied midfielders. My goodness, they need so much! (I've heard North will sell anything at any price!)
St Kilda
List:
The good news is that StKilda has almost got out of the habit it drafting twilight "list-cloggers". After de-listing the developing Alabakis, they chose the 30yo Campbell, with only 54 games from the Bulldogs. They also have too many non-key defenders in the mature and developing age ranges - Coffield, Geary, Long, Webster, Paton, McKenzie, Wilkie, Clark, Connolly - almost a quarter of their list are back flankers. Also, there is a big gap between their mature key genuine talls and their junior genuine talls.
The good news is that they have drafted across nearly all of the height groups, with Windhager already having the body of an AFL-ready player.
Ryder is an exceptional player at 33 years, although he only played half of last season. With Campbell as a back up ruck, the Saints can afford to use Marshall as a genuine tall key forward, especially since the developing Battle is struggling to rise to that position and looks better suited to defence.
Peris will be one to watch, with parents Nova Peris and Daniel Batman, and his cousin is Parfitt at Geelong. Peris is fast but needs to prove himself as either a 20+ possession winner, or a multiple goal-kicker, or both, to survive, but that will be couple of years ahead.
Last season, StKilda finished just outside the finals, and this season could see them just in, depending on an injury-free season, but they do need a better all-round list to be genuine contenders.
Select 22:
The StKilda team doesn't change that dramatically from last year. Ryder has an amazing presence when fit and playing freely in the ruck. Marshall could be used as a high key forward, taking pressure off King. Highmore has developed nicely and can be added to the back line. Also, there is a queue for back half positions and some twilight, mature and developing defenders will have to wait. Windhager, a midfield-forward, with an AFL-ready body and a Top-30 ranking pre-draft, should get an early taste.
Mid-season Update:
At times, StKilda have looked good but, unfortunately, lack the midfield rotation options to match it against top teams. Further, they are shallow for depth in key position players.
At season's end, they need to look out for a couple of 22-24yo genuine talls (195-199cm) for key positions and, possibly, a mature small midfielder to provide another small rotation with Gresham & Higgins. They should draft a talented small midfielder (rover, old lingo) and other talented juniors across gaps in their height ranges.
The good news is that StKilda has almost got out of the habit it drafting twilight "list-cloggers". After de-listing the developing Alabakis, they chose the 30yo Campbell, with only 54 games from the Bulldogs. They also have too many non-key defenders in the mature and developing age ranges - Coffield, Geary, Long, Webster, Paton, McKenzie, Wilkie, Clark, Connolly - almost a quarter of their list are back flankers. Also, there is a big gap between their mature key genuine talls and their junior genuine talls.
The good news is that they have drafted across nearly all of the height groups, with Windhager already having the body of an AFL-ready player.
Ryder is an exceptional player at 33 years, although he only played half of last season. With Campbell as a back up ruck, the Saints can afford to use Marshall as a genuine tall key forward, especially since the developing Battle is struggling to rise to that position and looks better suited to defence.
Peris will be one to watch, with parents Nova Peris and Daniel Batman, and his cousin is Parfitt at Geelong. Peris is fast but needs to prove himself as either a 20+ possession winner, or a multiple goal-kicker, or both, to survive, but that will be couple of years ahead.
Last season, StKilda finished just outside the finals, and this season could see them just in, depending on an injury-free season, but they do need a better all-round list to be genuine contenders.
Select 22:
The StKilda team doesn't change that dramatically from last year. Ryder has an amazing presence when fit and playing freely in the ruck. Marshall could be used as a high key forward, taking pressure off King. Highmore has developed nicely and can be added to the back line. Also, there is a queue for back half positions and some twilight, mature and developing defenders will have to wait. Windhager, a midfield-forward, with an AFL-ready body and a Top-30 ranking pre-draft, should get an early taste.
Mid-season Update:
At times, StKilda have looked good but, unfortunately, lack the midfield rotation options to match it against top teams. Further, they are shallow for depth in key position players.
At season's end, they need to look out for a couple of 22-24yo genuine talls (195-199cm) for key positions and, possibly, a mature small midfielder to provide another small rotation with Gresham & Higgins. They should draft a talented small midfielder (rover, old lingo) and other talented juniors across gaps in their height ranges.
Sydney
List:
Sydney just rolls along season to season, with a good range of age and height groups to remain competitive. They trade and draft well. Some clubs would be rocked by losing Dawson and Hewett at the one time, but Sydney roll along, picking up an excellent developing ruck/forward in Ladhams, and drafting ready to play juniors in Sheldrick and Roberts, and those who need a little more physical development in Rankin and Corey Warner.
Franklin is still a star, but the Swans also have the developing McLean and the junior McDonald to takeover eventually.
Melican and McCartin are their two best interceptors and are big enough to play the two key back positions, while junior Blakey, with more physical development, will grow into into a key back with time.
They do have some twilight midfielders - Kennedy and Parker - but they have more developing midfielders coming on, and, frankly, they no longer need Sinclair, Naismith and Reid on the list.
Things look good for Sydney who could be even more competitive this season.
Select 22:
As said, Sydney rolls along, but can improve if young Melican can stay injury free. Ladhams will give them a good long-term ruck/forward option, and will take the pressure off developing mark-taker and goal-kicker McLean. Also, a number of young midfielders will put pressure to gain midfield and interchange positions.
Mid-season Update:
As said back in January, "Sydney just rolls along season to season, with a good range of age and height groups to remain competitive. They trade and draft well." Paddy McCartin and Ladhams were canny pick-ups for them, at relatively low cost. And, their player depth across the heights and age ranges meant that Dawson and Hewett were not missed.
End of season, Sydney just keep on doing what they keep on doing well - trade and draft wisely.
Sydney just rolls along season to season, with a good range of age and height groups to remain competitive. They trade and draft well. Some clubs would be rocked by losing Dawson and Hewett at the one time, but Sydney roll along, picking up an excellent developing ruck/forward in Ladhams, and drafting ready to play juniors in Sheldrick and Roberts, and those who need a little more physical development in Rankin and Corey Warner.
Franklin is still a star, but the Swans also have the developing McLean and the junior McDonald to takeover eventually.
Melican and McCartin are their two best interceptors and are big enough to play the two key back positions, while junior Blakey, with more physical development, will grow into into a key back with time.
They do have some twilight midfielders - Kennedy and Parker - but they have more developing midfielders coming on, and, frankly, they no longer need Sinclair, Naismith and Reid on the list.
Things look good for Sydney who could be even more competitive this season.
Select 22:
As said, Sydney rolls along, but can improve if young Melican can stay injury free. Ladhams will give them a good long-term ruck/forward option, and will take the pressure off developing mark-taker and goal-kicker McLean. Also, a number of young midfielders will put pressure to gain midfield and interchange positions.
Mid-season Update:
As said back in January, "Sydney just rolls along season to season, with a good range of age and height groups to remain competitive. They trade and draft well." Paddy McCartin and Ladhams were canny pick-ups for them, at relatively low cost. And, their player depth across the heights and age ranges meant that Dawson and Hewett were not missed.
End of season, Sydney just keep on doing what they keep on doing well - trade and draft wisely.
Westcoast
List:
Westcoast have taken a new progressive list management strategy into 2022. Whereas last year, their developing and junior ranks looked bare, this year, they have traded and drafted their way into a more optimistic position.
In the Trade period, they picked up the developing Petrevski-Seton, who appears to be 5-10kgs below AFL norm. (That's more a knock on Carlton's poor junior development program.) The national draft was an amazing turn for Westcoast. They picked up the Top-20 ranked Chesser at pick 14, which doesn't seem extraordinary, but then picked up talented junior key position prospects Rhett Bazzo (18y, 194cm, 81kg) and Jack Williams (18y, 195cm, 94kg), both pre-draft Top-30 ranked, at picks #37 and #57 respectively. Williams was a gift - Tom Lynch-like, AFL-ready, can play either FB or FF. They also picked up the WAFL Grand Final BOG, Greg Clark, an interesting 24yo, 195cm midfielder, who has a canny ability to read play and find position.
Westcoast missed the finals last year. They have the list to be in the finals this year, but one can see that they will need a final changing of the old guard before they launch on a new premiership window.
Select 22:
Westcoast's immediate success depends much on the return of injured midfielders Shuey and Yeo. A fit Witherden will add to their defence. Developing players - Cole, Petruccelle, Waterman, Allen and Rotham - will continue to improve. Also, new tall-midfielder Clark could be used to change with Naitanui, although they can use junior ruck, Bailey Williams, 21yo, 199cm, too.
Mid-season Update:
Everybody knows it, nearly all are too scared to say it - Westcoast are tanking!
End of season, they will focus on trading for developing midfielders and drafting talented junior midfielders.
Westcoast have taken a new progressive list management strategy into 2022. Whereas last year, their developing and junior ranks looked bare, this year, they have traded and drafted their way into a more optimistic position.
In the Trade period, they picked up the developing Petrevski-Seton, who appears to be 5-10kgs below AFL norm. (That's more a knock on Carlton's poor junior development program.) The national draft was an amazing turn for Westcoast. They picked up the Top-20 ranked Chesser at pick 14, which doesn't seem extraordinary, but then picked up talented junior key position prospects Rhett Bazzo (18y, 194cm, 81kg) and Jack Williams (18y, 195cm, 94kg), both pre-draft Top-30 ranked, at picks #37 and #57 respectively. Williams was a gift - Tom Lynch-like, AFL-ready, can play either FB or FF. They also picked up the WAFL Grand Final BOG, Greg Clark, an interesting 24yo, 195cm midfielder, who has a canny ability to read play and find position.
Westcoast missed the finals last year. They have the list to be in the finals this year, but one can see that they will need a final changing of the old guard before they launch on a new premiership window.
Select 22:
Westcoast's immediate success depends much on the return of injured midfielders Shuey and Yeo. A fit Witherden will add to their defence. Developing players - Cole, Petruccelle, Waterman, Allen and Rotham - will continue to improve. Also, new tall-midfielder Clark could be used to change with Naitanui, although they can use junior ruck, Bailey Williams, 21yo, 199cm, too.
Mid-season Update:
Everybody knows it, nearly all are too scared to say it - Westcoast are tanking!
End of season, they will focus on trading for developing midfielders and drafting talented junior midfielders.
Western
List:
Credit to the "Doggies" list management, as they've recovered the list from the 2016 premiership, and redeveloped the list in two years to have the team back in the finals in 2019, 2020, and runners-up in 2021. An excellent effort. During that course, they've continued to review their group, drafting well and adding to it from outside.
The list is a good mixture across the age and height groups, but is strangely sparse in the taller-medium (186-189cm) group, where flankers, wingers and big-bodied midfielders come from. They run mobile talls - Bontempelli, Dunkley, Macrae, Hannan in these positions instead. This raises the question, how good are the Dogs when the ball is on the ground? Did this create a problem for them in the Grand Final? What do they need to do to go that one step further and win the premiership? Are the number of twilight Doggies now becoming a problem?
Select 22:
Caleb Daniel is not an interceptor, nor strong overhead. The team may benefit more by playing up the field in an outside running role. Roarke Smith, an emerging interceptor, could replace Daniel in the deep defensive role. O'Brien (ex-Hawk) should take over the role that should have gone last year to the emerging Lewis Young, who is likely to now take over Liam Jones's tall defensive role at Carlton. A fit Josh Bruce will add to their forward half, and take pressure off the the junior Naughton. Ugle-Hagan doesn't seem ready yet, and may need more development.
In the ruck, on game average, Sweet out-performed both Martin and English in hit outs, and should be given the first ruck role. English, stronger in marking and goal-kicking can change ruck from deep forward. (Remember, both English and Sweet are not yet 25yo.) Martin can still be used as a back-up.
The injection of more midfield rotation options within the team will help them combat opponents with 12-cylinder midfields. However, their junior midfielders are not yet showing 15+, let alone 20+, disposal averages yet. But, fortunately, they do have plenty of juniors for a team already in a premiership window.
Mid-season Update:
Is age catching up the Bulldogs? How many twilighters are still getting a game? How many of their mature players are about to become twilighters?
That tall-medium (186-189cm) group looks thin.
Next season, I guess the Bulldogs will have a bit more of a clean out up top, and fill it up with junior tall-mediums.
Credit to the "Doggies" list management, as they've recovered the list from the 2016 premiership, and redeveloped the list in two years to have the team back in the finals in 2019, 2020, and runners-up in 2021. An excellent effort. During that course, they've continued to review their group, drafting well and adding to it from outside.
The list is a good mixture across the age and height groups, but is strangely sparse in the taller-medium (186-189cm) group, where flankers, wingers and big-bodied midfielders come from. They run mobile talls - Bontempelli, Dunkley, Macrae, Hannan in these positions instead. This raises the question, how good are the Dogs when the ball is on the ground? Did this create a problem for them in the Grand Final? What do they need to do to go that one step further and win the premiership? Are the number of twilight Doggies now becoming a problem?
Select 22:
Caleb Daniel is not an interceptor, nor strong overhead. The team may benefit more by playing up the field in an outside running role. Roarke Smith, an emerging interceptor, could replace Daniel in the deep defensive role. O'Brien (ex-Hawk) should take over the role that should have gone last year to the emerging Lewis Young, who is likely to now take over Liam Jones's tall defensive role at Carlton. A fit Josh Bruce will add to their forward half, and take pressure off the the junior Naughton. Ugle-Hagan doesn't seem ready yet, and may need more development.
In the ruck, on game average, Sweet out-performed both Martin and English in hit outs, and should be given the first ruck role. English, stronger in marking and goal-kicking can change ruck from deep forward. (Remember, both English and Sweet are not yet 25yo.) Martin can still be used as a back-up.
The injection of more midfield rotation options within the team will help them combat opponents with 12-cylinder midfields. However, their junior midfielders are not yet showing 15+, let alone 20+, disposal averages yet. But, fortunately, they do have plenty of juniors for a team already in a premiership window.
Mid-season Update:
Is age catching up the Bulldogs? How many twilighters are still getting a game? How many of their mature players are about to become twilighters?
That tall-medium (186-189cm) group looks thin.
Next season, I guess the Bulldogs will have a bit more of a clean out up top, and fill it up with junior tall-mediums.
Conclusions
Initially, it is interesting to note that the pendulum of rule changes and interpretations has swung again. In the last couple of years, while Steve Hocking led the group, it can be easily alleged that the giving of extra time for the ball-carrier to dispose of the ball in a tackle, the leniency on ducking for a free-kick, and the 'stand' rule, were all given to benefit teams with old and experienced players (Geelong). Now that Steve has made his intention clear, by actually moving position to Geelong, the pendulum has swung again.
Most football lovers love hard-running, high-pressure footy, I do. Also, we treasured the fact that Melbourne and Footscray contested the grand final. It was interesting to compare the Dee's high-pressure game with the Doggies' open wide-running game. Further, it was Melbourne, with hard gut-running that won the day. And, hard gut-running teams, applying maximum pressure will continue to win grand finals.
In 2022, with a mostly mature and developing list, with some talented juniors, Melbourne will start as flag favourite, and is still the best list on the park. Other improving clubs that appear to have the same list characteristics are Port Adelaide, GWS, Essendon, Fremantle, and StKilda, (and even Carlton, if they toughen up) indicating that there may well be some new competitors in the 2022 finals series. Others, with aging lists - Geelong, Richmond, Collingwood, Westcoast - will be tested during the season, with injuries, and the quality of their respective depth levels. And, the Doggies, are they now slipping into the twilight zone.
Most football lovers love hard-running, high-pressure footy, I do. Also, we treasured the fact that Melbourne and Footscray contested the grand final. It was interesting to compare the Dee's high-pressure game with the Doggies' open wide-running game. Further, it was Melbourne, with hard gut-running that won the day. And, hard gut-running teams, applying maximum pressure will continue to win grand finals.
In 2022, with a mostly mature and developing list, with some talented juniors, Melbourne will start as flag favourite, and is still the best list on the park. Other improving clubs that appear to have the same list characteristics are Port Adelaide, GWS, Essendon, Fremantle, and StKilda, (and even Carlton, if they toughen up) indicating that there may well be some new competitors in the 2022 finals series. Others, with aging lists - Geelong, Richmond, Collingwood, Westcoast - will be tested during the season, with injuries, and the quality of their respective depth levels. And, the Doggies, are they now slipping into the twilight zone.
My 2020 epiphany
I meant to write this some time ago. It was in the early morning before the Richmond v Geelong 2020 Grand Final, I had a craving to flick onto Youtube and watch a replay of the previous Richmond v Geelong grand final played in 1967. You know the game - Farmer v Patterson (Neville Crowe suspended), Bourke v Polinelli, Swift v Wade, Marshall v Northey, Bartlett v Goggin, Hart's mark over Walker, Swift's mark on the goal line in a crucial last quarter, etc.. Lots of highlights!
Now, in 1967, footy was a lot different. There was only a small centre circle, the smaller goal squares, and no "out-on-the full" rule, just a throw-in. The ground had no larger centre square, no 50 metre arcs, there was no interchange bench, just two replacement reserves, no enlarged kick-out area, and there was only one field umpire. Also, if you watch the start of the game closely, the first three centre bounces by the field umpire go at right angles and it's play-on, not a call-back to re-bounce.
Guess what? The final score of the 1967 grand final was Richmond 16.18 (114) to Geelong 15.15 (105); as compared with 2020, Richmond 12.9 (81) to Geelong 7.8 (50). (Even then, a young hard-running, high-pressure team beat an older open-running, low-pressure opposition.)
I suggest, the league get rid of every rule change or addition that has occurred since 1967, maybe even out-on-the-full, and we'll end up with a better, higher-scoring game. Further, we should get rid of the rule-change committee and ban it from ever existing in the future. Of course, turning back the clock won't happen, but it was something magical that was lost.
Now, in 1967, footy was a lot different. There was only a small centre circle, the smaller goal squares, and no "out-on-the full" rule, just a throw-in. The ground had no larger centre square, no 50 metre arcs, there was no interchange bench, just two replacement reserves, no enlarged kick-out area, and there was only one field umpire. Also, if you watch the start of the game closely, the first three centre bounces by the field umpire go at right angles and it's play-on, not a call-back to re-bounce.
Guess what? The final score of the 1967 grand final was Richmond 16.18 (114) to Geelong 15.15 (105); as compared with 2020, Richmond 12.9 (81) to Geelong 7.8 (50). (Even then, a young hard-running, high-pressure team beat an older open-running, low-pressure opposition.)
I suggest, the league get rid of every rule change or addition that has occurred since 1967, maybe even out-on-the-full, and we'll end up with a better, higher-scoring game. Further, we should get rid of the rule-change committee and ban it from ever existing in the future. Of course, turning back the clock won't happen, but it was something magical that was lost.